In our previous forecast, we highlighted a potential shift in momentum for gold, which may point towards increased buying opportunities. We noted the critical pivot point at $3357, which gold had effectively broken. It is currently trading above this key level.
The Market Outlook for this Week
The market bias for gold is currently in a buy state. However, as the market conditions can change quickly, the emphasis might shift to mid-week buying instead. Therefore, it would be prudent to discuss the pivotal levels for buying and selling gold based on this week’s XAUUSD forecast from July 21st to July 25th, 2025.
There are a few significant U.S. economic reports scheduled for release this week. These reports could have substantial impacts on XAUUSD. For instance, some of the critical economic events to look out for this week include unemployment claims and PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) data.
On Thursday, July 24, the unemployment claims figures indicated a weakening labor market, with higher-than-expected numbers of jobless claims. This could lead to increased expectations of monetary easing, potentially devaluing the USD and boosting gold prices as a result.
On the same day, PMI data revealed a slight decline in industrial activity, failing to meet forecasts. This could further support gold as a safe-haven asset, putting pressure on the USD. A surge in unemployment claims might counterbalance the strength of the USD and provide gold with short-term backup.
Gold Overview (High Time Frame)
Coinciding with our last week’s forecast, the gold monthly overview again targets the $3435 level. This could potentially usher in some bearish momentum. However, until that point, gold is predicted to maintain its bullish stance according to the monthly frame.
Gold Forecast for July 21st to July 25th, 2025
Two zones stand out as potential gold buying points on the 4H chart for the aforementioned period.
The more immediate zone lies within the $3344-3333 support and OB (Order Block), where gold could test and possibly rise to $3377 or higher. However, should gold choose a deeper retracement, the range between $3308-3383 emerges as an attractive buying area due to the swing low, ideal OB and FVG (Fibonacci Vector Grid) conditions.
In contrast, the 1h chart provides a clear indication of potential selling pressure at the supply candle situated between $3380-3394, which also matches the swing high.
Trading Strategies & Investment Recommendations
To summarize, gold presents both buying and selling opportunities this week. Lower time frames indicate sell signals, while larger time frames suggest a buy position in gold.
Resistance Levels
- A 1h supply zone and swing high at $3380-3394.
Support Levels
- A 4h OB and support range from $3344-3333.
- A 4h swing low, OB and FVG between $3308-3383.
As always, this article does not constitute investment advice, and its content and materials are specifically for educational purposes. We strongly recommend conducting due diligence and consulting a financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
