Bitcoin Edging Towards Nasdaq Break Out
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently teetering on the precipice of a significant breakout relative to the Nasdaq 100 Composite. The BTC/Nasdaq ratio, a metric that represents how many units of Nasdaq it requires to equate the value of a single bitcoin, sits at an impressive 4.96. This indicates a nearly five-to-one ratio in Bitcoin’s favor.
Such a development has not been witnessed since January 2025. This was a particularly noteworthy moment in Bitcoin’s history as it set an all-time high of more than $109,000 during this time simultaneously setting a previous record of 5.08 in the BTC/Nasdaq ratio.
Bitcoin: The Historical Outperformer
A look back at each market cycle reveals a characteristic trend – the ratio reaches new highs. This was observed in 2017, 2021, and again now in 2025, consistently emphasizing Bitcoin’s superior performance compared to the Nasdaq.
Bitcoin’s resilience and prowess are not confined to its competition with Nasdaq. Its performance has increasingly diverged from the U.S. tech stocks across various time frames.
Bitcoin Versus U.S. Tech Stocks and the Nasdaq
An analysis of the year-to-date statistics reveals that Bitcoin has only decreased by a slightly disappointing 6% compared to Nasdaq’s hefty 15% decline. This divergence between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq becomes even more evident when considering the events following Donald Trump’s election victory in November 2024. Post this political event, Bitcoin experienced a spectacular rally of 30%, while the Nasdaq suffered a downfall by 12% during the same period.
Bitcoin’s Valuation Against Mega-Cap Tech Stocks
When compared to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ – a term for the seven mega-cap tech stocks, Bitcoin still hovers roughly 20% below its all-time high from February of this year. This suggests that, despite Bitcoin’s fortitude, the leading tech names have exhibited greater resilience when compared to the broader Nasdaq Composite.
Strategy: The Bitcoin Proxy
Strategy (MSTR), a name synonymous with Bitcoin exposure, offers an interesting case study. Strategy’s performance has outshone not only Bitcoin but also the US tech stocks. After its addition to the QQQ ETF on December 23, MSTR’s value decreased by only 11%, which is striking when compared to the ETF’s significant 16% decline. This discrepancy between MSTR and QQQ became even more stark in 2025. While the QQQ has faced a 15% slump since the start of the year, MSTR has flourished with a 6% year-to-date increase.
In conclusion, the comparison of Bitcoin with Nasdaq and the U.S. tech stocks offers intriguing insights. The contrast reveals Bitcoin’s resilience and potential to outperform despite market trends and changes. This tendency of Bitcoin can serve as a significant marker for investors and market enthusiasts alike, encouraging them to re-evaluate and reconsider their investment strategies and decisions.
