A Review of Token Launches in 2025: Disappointing Returns for Most Investors
In the world of digital currencies, 2025 was a year filled with token launches. Sadly, the majority of these launches resulted in broken investor hopes rather than soaring profits. Data sourced from the well-respected insight provider, Memento Research, reveals a harsh reality. Over 84% of the 118 tokens launched in 2025 are currently trading below their token generation event (TGE) valuations, resulting in a median loss for investors exceeding 70%.
Considering the hype, expectation, and capital surrounding these launches, the reality of this underperformance has sent substantial shockwaves through the market. Nevertheless, there were some exceptions to this adorned disaster. A particular group of tokens that started with lower fully diluted valuations (FDVs) outshined their more hyped and bigger competitors, providing a glimmer of hope in an otherwise bleak landscape.
Larger Launches, Larger Failures
Breaking down the data, it’s clear that larger token launches fared worse than less-hyped tokens. An equitably weighted basket of the tokens launched during 2025 saw a drop of nearly one-third in value. Disturbingly, this decline expands to more than 61% once weighted by FDV; a clear indication that the larger the launch, the worse its performance.
One classic example of this trend is the Layer 1 blockchain project, Plasma. After its TGE, Plasma’s FDV skyrocketed to an impressive $17 billion. However, this astronomic figure swiftly dropped, bringing it back down to earth at around $1.2 billion, as calculated by CoinGecko. This significant slump has resulted in long-term underperformance attributable to overly optimistic opening valuations. The market’s reaction, it seems, has been unforgiving for projects whose opening valuations were set way too high and contrary to their actual worth, leading to larger percentage drawdowns.
The Power of Starting Valuations
An inquiry into the data reveals that the initial FDVs play a crucial role in determining the long-term performance of token launches. Tokens that made their first appearance with FDVs in the range of $25 million to $200 million had the most commendable results – remaining in the green for forty percent of them.
However, as FDVs get larger, the performance of these tokens visibly deteriorates. None of the 28 token launches with debut FDVs exceeding $1 billion remained in the green, and most sustained losses around a staggering -81%. This compelling data highlights the sway FDVs hold over the success of tokens.
A Glance at Best and Worst Performing Categories
From the different categories, the ones that left a mark were Perpetual Decentralized Exchanges. Here, average gains exceeded a staggering 200%! The caveat to keep in mind is that these results were majorly driven by exceptional performers and specific periods.
Other categories with positive averages included gaming and data tokens, although the precise projects driving these profits weren’t specified. On the bleak side of the spectrum, decentralized science (DeSci) and stablecoin projects stood as the worst performers, witnessing average losses of 93% and 70% respectively.
The Silver Lining
Despite the largely disappointing performance, one significant lesson can be gleaned from the experiences of 2025. It was a valuation ‘reset’ period for token generation events. With the majority of tokens suffering significant losses, only a handful of outliers, typically lower FDV tokens, managed to survive the downturn and generate some profits.
Simply put, the more grand the FDV at debut, the greater the drawdown. The future of digital currencies, thus, can be seen to favour those who opt for relatively modestly valued launches opposed to extravagant ones.
This examination of the 2025 token launches is a strong reminder that in the digital currency market, hype does not always equivalate to success – a lesson all future investors and token issuers should keep close to their hearts.
