In recent times, with the broader crypto market showing no significant activity, Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency, appears to be in a similar situation, entrapped within a constricted price range. However, on closer observation, experts suggest that a substantial accumulation is currently ongoing beneath the visible surfaces.
As per the statistics from The Block’s price page, Bitcoin kick-started Thursday at close to $101,900. This positions it near the lower end of its longstanding corridor of $100,000-$105,000.
The ETF Cycle
Simultaneously, spot funds saw a further round of redemptions, coming on the heels of their recent most substantial inflow day in a month. Bitcoin’s spot ETFs reportedly lost approximately $278 million on Wednesday, while Ethereum spot ETFs faced a deduction of nearly $184 million. On the brighter side, Solana spot ETFs saw a shot in the arm with an addition of +$18.06 million.
Markets in Flux
On parallel lines, across futures markets, the open interest has seen a contraction by an estimated 34% from its October zenith of beyond $64 billion to a figure under $42 billion as marked on Nov. 13. In addition, the total liquidations climbed a notch to touch $583 million, predominantly coming from overstretched long positions, as indicated by CoinGlass data. However, in a contrasting trend, whale accumulation surged even as leverage receded.
Whales on the Move
Whale accumulation continues unabated with an addition of over 45,000 BTC this week alone. According to Timothy Misir, head of research at BRN, this marks the second-largest accumulation of 2025. This sum, roughly equivalent to $4.6 billion at current rates, signals a structural positioning in the backdrop of languid flows and diminished momentum.
Blockchain Buys
As per BRN’s expert, blockchain data demonstrates that much of the buying streak has been accompanied by a rise in withdrawals from exchanges into cold storage. This could potentially indicate institutional positioning rather than regular retail speculation.
Onchain intelligence from Glassnode presents a balanced picture of a market in delicate equilibrium. Its latest weekly report noticed consolidation in a mildly bearish range and limited upside from resistance close to the $106,000 mark.
An Exhausted Market
Analysts portrayed the present structure as defined by seller exhaustion in close proximity to the $100,000 mark, and an intense supply cluster/resistance between the $106,000 and $110,000 limits, forming an overhang that continues to regulate the upward momentum.
Macro Relief
In the midst of price action and the activity of whales, a slew of macro developments has delivered minor relief to risk assets. The U.S. government officially reopened this week after the House approved long-delayed spending legislation. This ended a 41-day shutdown and unlocked approximately $40 billion in deferred liquidity.
In sync with this, China’s Ministry of Commerce underscored that substantial room for trade and economic cooperation with the U.S. still exists, signally a potential softening in global trade dynamics.
Markets Rally
These events collectively restored some confidence in global markets, thus supporting what Misir termed as revising macro conditions and cautious optimism in risk sentiment.
Despite macro improvements and whales’ investment, general market sentiment remains somewhat fragile. Analysts speculate that continuous ETF outflows could potentially continue to create supply pressure on spot markets, particularly if institutional investors defer re-entry.
Vulnerable Winds
However, the macro tailwinds are still susceptible. A relapse into fiscal deadlock or unexpected inflation shocks could easily erase recent liquidity gains.
Furthermore, with institutional rotation yet to display sustained momentum, Bitcoin’s consolidation phase may continue for a while. According to expert opinions shared by BRN and Glassnode, this can keep traders locked within a range instead of embarking on a new trend. As Misir opined, the market is in a quiet equilibrium, structurally cleaner, but not sufficiently liquid to trend.
